摘要
通过构建以收入、预期一年期存款实际利率、预期实际汇率、股票市场市值四个宏观经济指标为决定变量的货币需求计量模型,得出各影响因素的弹性值并检验各变量对于我国货币需求的传导机制。实证结果表明:利率与汇率弹性均为负数且数值较大,收入与股票市值弹性均为正数但后者数值较小。说明我国近六年来经济开放程度与预期实际利率水平对我国的货币需求影响程度较深,收入水平对其影响程度相对减弱,股票市值的影响并不显著。应采取有效的政策措施控制我国的货币需求量。
A monetary demand measurement model is established, in which macroeconomic indicators such as in- come, expected one-year deposit real interest rate, expected real exchange rate and stock market value are the decision variables. Thus, the elasticity value of each variable could be obtained. This model is used to inspect the impact of variables on conduction mechanism of monetary demand. The empirical result indicates that the high value of interest rate and exchange rate is negative. But the value of income and stock market is positive, and the value of the latter is low. This analysis suggests that the economic openness and the expected real interest rates have a greater impact on monetary demand. But the impact of income on it is relatively weakened. The stock market value has an insignificant impact on it. Effective policies and measures should be taken to control the demand for currency.
出处
《税务与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第4期37-41,共5页
Taxation and Economy
关键词
货币需求弹性
利率
汇率
预期
股票市值
money demand elasticity
interest rate
exchange rate
expectation
stock market value
