取消化石能源补贴对我国居民收入分配的影响——基于投入产出价格模型的模拟分析

Effects of the Cancellation of Fossil Fuel Subsidies on Income Distribution in China:A Simulation Analysis Based on the Input-output Price Model

文章在总结不同收入居民能源消费特征的基础上,采用投入产出价格模型,分别在有无政府价格管制的情境下,模拟分析了中国取消化石能源补贴的分配影响。结果表明:(1)取消不同能源补贴的分配影响有所差异,从综合影响看,取消交通燃料补贴的累进性最强,取消煤炭补贴的累进性最弱,而取消电力补贴的影响是累退的,其中取消成品油补贴对居民冲击最大,其次是电力,煤炭的影响最小;(2)补贴改革对居民的间接影响大于直接影响;(3)政府的价格管制能够减轻补贴改革的负向冲击。能源补贴改革可从累进性强、影响力小的能源如交通燃料开始,并采取一定的补偿措施以减轻改革对贫困居民的冲击。

Based on the summary of the energy consumption characteris- tics of residents with different income levels, this paper adopts the input- output price model to simulate the distributional effects of the cancellation of fossil fuel subsidies with and without government price regulation. The re- suits are shown as follows： firstly, the distributional effects of the cancella- tion of fossil fuel subsidies differ; as for the comprehensive effect, the can- cellation of transportation fuel subsidies has the strongest progressivity, and the cancellation of coal subsidies weakest; the cancellation of electricity subsi- dies is regressive; the cancellation of refined oil subsidies has the greatest shocks to residents, followed by the cancellation of electricity and coal subsidies~ second- ly, the indirect effect of subsidies reform on residents is larger than the direct one; thirdly, government price regulation can weaken the negative shocks of subsidies reform. The reform of energy subsidies can start from energy with strong progressivity and weak effects like transportation fuel, and take some subsidies measures to weaken the shocks of the reform to the poor.