进入顺序对企业出口持续时间的影响

Impact of Sequence of Entry on Firm Export Duration

文章关注我国新出口市场中企业的进入顺序对其出口持续时间的影响。由于首个进入的先锋企业对其他企业有正外部性,考察它在存活率上是否占有优势具有重要的政策含义。基于中国海关的月度出口数据,文章对2002年新市场的先锋企业和跟随企业进行了生存分析。结果显示,在新市场中企业的存活率整体较低;先锋企业在早期的存活率高于跟随企业,但这种优势保持的时间较短;若集中分析存活3个月以上的企业,则发现跟随企业平均出口持续时间更长。文章进一步采用Cox比例风险模型进行了回归分析,发现在控制了目的地国家、产业以及企业层面的特征以后,以上现象依然存在且非常稳健。由此,文章建议国家对先锋企业进行适度补贴。

This paper analyzes the effect of firm sequence of entry into new export markets on firm export duration. Because of the positive externa- lity of the first firm that enters into the market, namely the pioneer firm, the analysis of the advantage of its survival rate is of great policy implica- tion. Based on the monthly export data from China customs, this paper makes a survival analysis of the pioneer firms and their followers in new export markets of 2002. Results are shown as follows： firstly, the survival rates of en- trants in new markets are overall low; secondly, the early survival rate of the pio- neer firm is higher than the ones of the followers, but this advantage could not last long; thirdly, the analysis of the survival of firms with more than three months indicates that the followers present longer average export duration. The regression analysis by the adoption of a Cox proportional hazards model reaches the conclu- sion that, after the control of the characteristics of state, industry and firm levels with regard to the destinations, the findings above-mentioned still exist and are very robust. Therefore, it proposes that governments should provide appropriate adequate subsidies for pioneer firms.