天津电力负荷特性及其与气象因子的关系

Characteristics of Electrical Load and Its Relationship to Meteorological Factors in Tianjin

利用天津近30年来的逐年电力负荷数据以及2002—2005年逐时电力负荷资料,分析了天津电力负荷的变化特征,研究了电力负荷与气象因子的关系。结果表明:近30年来,天津电力负荷的长期趋势基本受当地GDP的影响,气温等气象因子的作用不明显;在季节和日尺度上,气温的影响十分显著,7、8月气温每上升1℃,气象负荷将增加120MW左右;除气温的影响外,夏季、初秋相对湿度对电力负荷的影响非常显著,此外,4月、6月、7月和12月还得考虑风的影响;一般来说,夏季最高气温在30℃以上,平均相对湿度大于65%时,才可能出现极端电力负荷。

Using the hourly electrical load data from 2002 to 2005 and the year-to-year data of electrical load in the recent 30 years in Tianjin, the characteristics of electrical load and its relationship with meteorological factors are analyzed. The results show that the long-term interannual trend of electrical load in recent 30 years was dominantly influenced by the local GDP, whereas meteorological factors such as temperature showed no significant effect. At the seasonal and daily scales, the electrical load was obviously related with air temperature. Especially in July and August, if temperature increased 1℃, electrical load rose by about 120 MW. Besides the influence of temperature, relative humidity had remarkable effect on electrical load in summer and early autumn. Moreover, the effect of winds on electrical load should be considered in April, June, July, and December. Generally, extreme electrical load might appear when the maximum temperature was up to 30 ℃, and average humidity was more than 65% in summer