安徽省旱灾区划与农业经济损益分析

Analysis of the Relationship between Drought and Agricultural Economy Cost/Benefit inAnhui Province

水资源分布不均及利用率不高是安徽省旱灾产生的重要原因,旱灾区划是抗旱水利工程系统规划和科学管理的重要依据,有效管理抗旱投入从而提高农业抗旱效益是旱灾风险管理的重要目标。旱灾对粮食产量、农村居民和牲畜饮水、农村经济发展都产生最直接的影响。研究当前抗旱工作的效益和效果,对进一步提高抗旱效率、降低经济损失以及完善抗旱管理具有重要的现实意义。通过对安徽省1990~2007抗旱投入和减少农业经济损失两个指标时间序列进行协整分析,确立两指标之间存在长期均衡关系,误差修正模型显示短期内具有很强的自我调节均衡的能力。结果表明,抗旱投入对减少农业经济损失产生了重要作用。同时分析了目前抗旱投入管理工作中存在的问题并提出相应的对策建议。

The uneven distribution and low rate of water resource utilization was the primary reason for the drought that occurred in Anhui province.Drought regionalization is an important basis of water conservation system planning and of scientific management to improve the drought-resistance of agricultural systems.Drought has major,direct impacts on food production,drinking water for rural residents and livestock,and rural economic development.This paper discusses current problems and issues regarding the management of drought resistance and,based on a study of the efficiency and consequences of the current campaign against the effects of drought,offers suggestions for further improving the efficiency of drought-resistant measures and for reducing economic losses.Cointegration analysis of time series data for two indicators of drought resistance with agricultural economic loss data for Anhui province from 1990 to 2007 reveals that the two indicators are related in a long-term equilibrium,and the error correction model shows a strong ability for self-adjustment equilibrium to be attained over short timescales.The results indicate that drought-resistant measures play an important positive role in reducing agricultural economic losses.