气候政策建模研究综述:基于文献计量分析

Review on Climate Policy Modeling: An Analysis Based on Bibliometrics Method

利用SCI-E和SSCI网络版数据库,使用文献计量方法对1981—2012年间气候政策建模领域的科学产出进行分析。通过对气候政策建模领域的基本特征分析,发现气候政策建模是一个多学科交叉的领域;发达国家在此领域的实力明显强于发展中国家,欧美占据主导地位。通过对关键词的词频分析,发现气候政策建模领域的6个研究热点:减排机制、不确定性、成本效益分析、发展情景、技术进步和公平性。分析还发现,此领域最主流的分析框架是综合评估模型,最主要的模型方法有最优化模型、可计算一般均衡模型和模拟模型;行为模型和数据包络分析模型具有很强的应用潜力。通过对中国在该领域国际地位的分析,提出了该领域发展的相关建议。

Based on the online version of SCI-E from 1981 to 2012 and SSCI from 2002 to 2012, this study applies bibliometrics method to analyze the scientific production of climate policy modeling. By analyzing the basic characteristics of climate policy modeling, it is found that climate policy modeling is a kind of interdisciplinary field, involving environmental science, economic, meteorology arid atmospheric science, geoscience, and management science. Developed countries have much stronger strength than developing countries, and the United States and Europe have the total predominance in this field. By frequency analysis of keywords, six hot research topics in climate policy modeling are summarized including greenhouse gas reduction, uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis, development scenario, technical change and equity. In addition, Integrated Assessment Model （IAM） is the most popular framework in climate policy modeling, and three main modeling methods are optimization models, Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） Models and Simulation Models. In the future, Behavior Models and Data Envelopment Analysis （DEA） Models may have great application potential. Based on the synthetic analysis of Chinese research in climate policy modeling, this study gives several suggestions on the development in this field. Firstly, China should improve both quality and quantity of publications in this field. Secondly, China should train a group of scientific research personnel who concentrate on climate policy modeling. Thirdly, China should establish some specialized journals of this field, or drive related journals to pay attention to this field.