太阳活动与全球变暖对突聋发病率的长期变化趋势的影响

Influence of both solar activity and the global warming on thevariation trend of occurrence of sudden deafness

目的:探讨突聋发病人数的长期变化趋势与太阳活动和全球变暖的关系。方法:对1980-2009年期间西安交通大学医学院第二附属医院收治的突聋发病人数逐年的百分比、每年平均太阳黑子数、每年西安市平均气温等三种数据进行了经验模式分解、交叉相关分析和统计检验分析。结果:突聋的趋势项成分与气温变化的趋势项成分有明显关联;突聋的本征模函数项成分与黑子数的本征模函数项成分有明显关联。结论:气温变化的趋势是影响突聋发病率长期变化趋势的重要因素之一,而黑子活动(主要是非趋势波动成分)可能对突聋的非趋势波动成分有显著影响。

Objective：To investigate relationship of the long-term variation trend of the occurrence of sudden deafness respectively with solar activity and the global warming. Method：We utilized the empirical mode decompo- sition, cross-correlation, and the statistical test methods to analyze the yearly percent rate（PR） of sudden deafness patients at the second affiliated hospital of Xi＇an Jiangtong University, the yearly mean sunspot number（SSN）, and the temperature series（T） in Xi＇an district during the years of 1980 to 2009. Result：The trend component of T was highly correlated to the trend component of PR, and the IMF （intrinsic mode function） component of SSN was highly correlated to the IMF component of PR. Conclusion：The occurrence of sudden deafness is indeed statistically affected by solar activity and temperature. The trend component of PR is inferred to be probably caused by the trend component of T, and it is solar activity（SSN）, especially its periodical wavelike component that should prob- ably give rise to the wavelike component of the occurrence（PR） of sudden deafness. Some explanation has been given to issue the found relationship. Also given is the plausible mechanism of solar activity and temperature acting on occurrence of sudden deafness.