气候变化对杭嘉湖地区水稻生育期温度适宜性及生产潜力的影响

Impacts of climatic change on the suitability of temperature for rice at developmental stages and the potential productivity in the Hang-Jia-Hu Region

在田间试验和实地观测资料的基础上,确定了温度适宜性评价函数和生产潜力计算参数,分析了气候变化对杭嘉湖地区水稻生育期温度适宜性和生产潜力的影响。结果表明,由于气候变化,特别是温度条件的变化,使早稻移栽分蘖期和灌浆成熟期、晚稻抽穗开花期和灌浆成熟期的温度条件有很大改善,4个时期温度适宜性评价的平均值1981～1997年分别比1951～1980年提高了11.1％、5.2％、13.4％和13.2％。除早稻光温生产潜力明显增加外,早稻光能生产潜力和晚稻光能、光温生产潜力均呈下降趋势,但早稻和晚稻光温生产潜力及光能生产潜力比值均呈升高趋势,说明温度条件改善和补偿作用明显。

Base on the field tests and on-the-spot observation,the parameters for the temperature suitability assessment function and the potential productivity calculation were determined ,and the impacts of climatic change on the suitability of temperature for rice at developmental stages and the potential productivity in the Hang-Jia-Hu Region were analyzed. Results indicated that the cli-matic change had ameliorated the temperature condition at the transplanting and tillering stage and the grain filling and maturing stage of the early rice,and the heading and flowering stage and the grain filling and maturing stage of the late rice. In view of the average value of the temperature suitability assessment of the above 4 stages, the average of the duration from 1981 to 1997 was higher than that of the duration of from 1951 to 1980,being 11.1% ,5.2%,13.4% and 13.2% up, respectively. From the point of view of the potential productivity,the light potential productivity of the early rice,and the light and the light-temperature potential productivity of the late rice showed a decreasing tendency,except for the significant increase in the light-temperature potential produc-tivity of the early rice. However, the ratio of the light-temperature potential productivity to the light potential productivity showed an increasing tendency both for the early and late rice,indicat-ing that the amelioration of temperature condition and its compensation function were significant.