摘要
[ Objective] The multiple mean generational function （MMGF） method was applied to forecast the annual number of typhoons （TYs） over the Western North Pacific （WNP）. [Method]The method yields a number of predictors by mean generational function based on the rolling 50- year data of TYs frequency and sunspot number, and was repeated to generate forecasts year after year by optimal subset regression. [ Result] The results showed a reasonably high predictive ability dudng period 2000 -2010, with an average root mean square （RMSE） value of 1.92 and a mean absolute error （MAE） value of 1.64. [ Conclusion] Although the MMGF method needs further validation in the practical operation, it already has strong potential for the improvement of skill at forecasting annual frequency of TYs in the WNP.
[ Objective] The multiple mean generational function （MMGF） method was applied to forecast the annual number of typhoons （TYs） over the Western North Pacific （WNP）. [Method]The method yields a number of predictors by mean generational function based on the rolling 50- year data of TYs frequency and sunspot number, and was repeated to generate forecasts year after year by optimal subset regression. [ Result] The results showed a reasonably high predictive ability dudng period 2000 -2010, with an average root mean square （RMSE） value of 1.92 and a mean absolute error （MAE） value of 1.64. [ Conclusion] Although the MMGF method needs further validation in the practical operation, it already has strong potential for the improvement of skill at forecasting annual frequency of TYs in the WNP.
基金
Supported by the Natural Science Fund of Education Department of Anhui Province (KJ2012Z097)
