摘要
促进就业对实现社会稳定发展起到至关重要的作用。面对经济增长时期就业情况的变化,本文根据1978-2011年我国城镇职工的统计数据,建立了基于经济增长的工资与就业之间的变参数动态模型-状态空间模型,给出了工资与就业的动态效应分析。研究结果表明:工资与就业存在长期均衡关系;工资对就业的影响经历了"负相关-不相关-正相关"的动态演变过程;经济增长对就业的影响一直是正相关的,且2000年以后对就业的影响程度大于工资对就业的影响。
Promoting employment plays a crucial role in achieving social stability and development.In the face of the employment situation changes in the period of economic growth,the state space model about the wage and employment is set up based on the economic growth and the 1978-2011statistic data.Furthermore,the analysis of dynamic effects of wage and employment is presented in details.The result shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between wages and employment;the effect of the wage on employment experiences＂negative correlation-irrelevance-positive correlation＂dynamic process;while the impact of economic growth on employment is positively related all the time,and after year 2000,the influence of economic growth on China＇s urban workers employment is stronger.
出处
《商业研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第8期36-41,共6页
Commercial Research
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目
项目编号:12YJC790190
关键词
经济增长
就业
城镇职工
工资
状态空间模型
economic growth
employment
urban workers
wage
state space model
