可持续水资源系统机制研究

Mechanism of sustainable water resources system

基于系统与可持续理论,探讨了可持续水资源系统的内涵和特性。剖析了可持续水资源系统,主要由动力机制、阻力机制和协调机制构成,三者相互关联、相互作用,共同维系和制约着可持续水资源系统的演化。运用二次非线性微分方程来描述和分析可持续水资源系统的演化动态过程,指出一个系统演化要经历初始、发展、成熟和稳定4个阶段,之后进入下一个演化周期。以上海市为例,评判了可持续水资源系统状态,拟合了2001—2010年可持续水资源系统的演化曲线,并分析给出了该系统这一时段的演变过程。

Based on the sustainability and system theory, the connotation and features of Sustainable Water Resources System （SWRS） were discussed and the SWRS evolution forcing mechanism was put forwarded, that is, the SWRS is controlled by the interactions among dynamical, resistant, and coordinate mechanism. A quadratic nonlinear differen- tial equation was used to describe the evolution process of SWRS quantitatively on basis of generalizing the influencing factors for SWRS evolution. The SWRS evolution follows a four-stage （initiation, growth, mature and steady） evolu- tion cycle before it goes to the new evolution cycle. Further, taking Shanghai city as an example, the SWRS evolution equation was established by fitting method, and the evaluation results and the causes were given.