基于社交网络的舆论成长与引导研究——以什邡事件为例

The Social Network-based Growth and Guide of Public Opinion——With “Shifang Event” as an Example

社交网络的兴起,深刻地影响着社会舆论的发展进程和方向。文章以"什邡事件"为例,通过对其发生发展过程中社交网络上相关言论的量化统计和质性分析,从中心议题的形成与导入、议题受众的聚集与分化、意见领袖的出现与交锋、舆论形态的衰减与消退等四个阶段分析了基于社交网络的舆论成长的一般过程,在此基础上提出了有效引导网络舆论,推动其与社会舆论良性互动的基本策略。

The rise of social networks profoundly affects the development and direction of public opinion. This paper starts with ＂Shifang Event＂ as an example, by the way of quantitative statistics and qualitative analysis of its occurrence and development of the social network relating speech. Afterwards, an analysis is made based on general growth pattern of social networks. There are four stages： the formation and diffusion of central topic, topic audience＇s aggregation and differentiation, opinion leaders and their confrontation, opinion attenuation and regression. Based on these results, a fundamental strategy is put forward, which effectively guides network public opinion and propels its benign interaction with public opinion.