城镇居民消费水平的预测

Prediction of the Consumption Level of Urban Residents

本文根据1978-2009年的数据建立了Logistic与GM(1,1)模型,并预测了2010-2020年我国城镇居民消费水平指数。最后基于Logistic模型的缺点考虑阻滞因素对Logistic模型进行改进,得到了与GM(1,1)模型预测精度接近的模型,同时还能避免GM(1,1)模型在中后期预测出现无限增长的情况。

According to the data from 1978 to 2009, this paper established Logistic and GM （1,1） model and predicted the urban residents consumption level from 2010 to 2020. Finally, based on the shortcomings of Logistic model and considering blocking factor, it improved the Logistic model and obtained the model whose prediction accuracy is close to the GM （1,1） model, while avoiding the infinite growth situation of GM （I,1） model in late prediction.