摘要
依据高关水库流域1971—2011年主汛期实测降雨量资料，应用均值标准差法建立5级分级标准。针对降雨量为相依随机变量的特点，以各阶自相关系数为权重，运用马尔可夫链模型预测未来一年的时段降雨量状态，由于采用此方法得到的是一个区间值而不是一个确定的数值，因此，不但扩大了预测的范围，最重要的是能够很好的指导现实的工作。该方法具有直观、预测准确、计算简便的优点，为区域降雨量的中短期预测提供了新的分析途径。
On the basis of the rainfall precipitation data of Gaoguan reservoir basin in main flood season from 1971 to 2011, the mean standard deviation method is used to set up 5-grade classification standard. According to the characteristics of rainfall for dependent random variables, with the weight of each order autocorrelation coefficient, the Markov chain model is used to forecast the rainfall condition next year. As the result of this method is an interval value rather than a determined value, therefore, it not only expands the range, the most important it can guide the work of the reality very well. The method is intuitive, its prediction is accurate, and its calculation is simple, so it provides a new method of the middle or short term prediction for regional rainfall.
出处
《价值工程》
2013年第25期50-52,共3页
Value Engineering
关键词
自相关系数
马尔可夫链
降雨量变化
预测
高关水库流域
the autocorrelation coefficient
Markov chain
change of rainfall
prediction
Gaoguan reservoir basin
