樱桃沟小流域水资源承载力预测评价

Prediction and assessment of bearing capacity of water resources in Yingtaogou small watershed

合理利用水资源,并将其控制在水资源承载力范围内,是一个区域社会、经济和生态环境不断优化发展的关键。以樱桃沟小流域水资源承载力为研究对象,运用模糊综合评价方法,选取2010—2050年5个水平年对樱桃沟小流域水资源承载力进行了预测。结果表明:2010年樱桃沟小流域水资源发展水平同社会经济发展极不协调,处于很弱的水平,到2020年两者关系趋于缓和,2050年进入协调发展阶段;流域内生态环境系统一直处于很弱的级别。二级模糊评判结果反应出在5个预测水平年内,小流域整体的水资源承载力持续升高。

Rational use of water resources and controlling themunder the beating capacity of water resources are very important for regional social, economic and ecological environmental development. The bearing ca- pacity of water resources in Yingtaogou small watershed was predicted from 2010 to 2050 using the fllzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed that water resources level in Yingtaogou small water- shed was very inconsistent with socio-economic development in 2010 and the relationship between them will tend to mitigate in 2020 and enter into coordinate development stage in 2050. The eco-environmental system in Yingtaogou small watershed has been at a very weak level. The two-level fuzzy evaluation results reflected that the overall bearing capacity of water resources in Yingtaogou small will continue to rise in five years.