输电系统可靠性评估中若干基本问题的讨论

Discussion on Several Basic Problems of Transmission System Reliability Evaluations.

输电系统可靠性评估是电力系统可靠性工作的重要环节,但其难点甚多,至今尚无成熟可用的方法。本文从输电系统固有特点和可靠性理论的具体应用上作些分析和评述,对当前常用的方法提出质疑。文中还提出了一种计算电网风险度指标的条件概率算法,以期引起注意和讨论。

Transmission system reliability evaluation was one of the key links in power system reliability assessment. But so far, there was no field proven method used due to a lot of difficulties.In accordance with the discussions on transmission system inherent characteristics and the using of basic reliability theory, several questions on the evaluating method used in recent time were raised and also a conditional probability method calculating network risk index was given in this paper. The author hopes to cause attention and discussion on these problems.