铸币税与通货膨胀福利成本:分析框架与基于中国数据的经验研究

Seigniorage and Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analytical Framework and The Empirical Research based on Chinese Data

本文基于一个一般均衡的理论框架,分析通货膨胀福利成本和铸币税问题;并基于中国的数据,应用GMM计量方法估计模型参数,对我国通货膨胀福利成本和铸币税进行了估算。我们发现:中国通货膨胀铸币税收益并没有表现出拉弗曲线关系;在低通货膨胀率下,铸币税收益相对较高;当通货膨胀率低于0.105时,通货膨胀净收益为正值;在1978-2012年间,通货膨胀率总体保持在较适宜的水平。

This paper analyzes the welfare cost of inflation and Seigniorage based on a general equilibrium theoretical framework.Based on China's data,estimation is made via GMM method on the related parameters and the welfare cost of inflation and Seigniorage.The usual Laffer curve relationship between Seigniorage revenue and inflation rate could not be found in China.Seigniorage revenue is relatively high with low inflation.Net income of inflation is positive when inflation rate is lower than 0.105.The overall inflation rates in 1978-2012 in China are at a relatively rational level.