水上交通系统安全模态定义与建模

Water Traffic System Safety Modality:Definition and Modeling

为动态研究水上交通系统安全特性,引入水上交通系统安全模态概念。分别运用水上交通事故概率解析模型和序次probit模型,探索性地构建交通流子系统安全模态模型和自然环境-船舶子系统安全模态模型,并将其融合得到水上交通系统安全模态模型。以深圳港西部港区部分航道水域为例,运用水上交通系统安全模态模型分析其水上交通系统安全模态,结果表明,该模型反映出深圳西部港区水上交通系统安全在不同条件下的波动态势,且随着交通流密度的增大,波动态势越明显。

In order to study the water traffic system safety characteristics dynamically, a water traffic sys- tem safety modality concept was put forward. The accident probilitiy analysis model and the ordered probit model were used respectively to build a safety modality model of the traffic flow subsystem and a safety modality model of the natural environment-ship subsystem exploratively, and then the two models were combined to compose a safety modality model of the water traffic system. Taking a part of the western Shenzhen port channels for example, the model composed was used to analyze its water traffic system safety modality. The results indicate that this model reflects the fluctuation situation of water traffic system safety under different conditions, and with an increase in traffic flow density, the fluctuation situation becomes more obvious.