基于ISM方法的城市轨道交通系统运营安全分析

Analysis of City Rail Transit System Operation Safety Based on ISM

为有效预防城市轨道交通运营事故,从人、机、环、管、监5个方面分析影响轨道交通系统安全的因子,最终得出23个影响因子。采用解释结构模型(ISM)的基本理论与方法,建立因子间邻接矩阵、可达矩阵,并划分因子层级,最终得到解释结构图,找出影响系统安全的直接原因、间接原因以及深层次原因。结果表明:安全文化、人力资源管理是影响系统安全的最深层次因素,管理机制、文化程度、检查体系等是影响系统安全的间接原因,车辆系统可靠性、通信信号系统可靠性、供电系统可靠性、专项整治、自然灾害等是影响运营安全的最直接原因。

In order to effectively prevent accidents of city rail traffic, five aspects human, machine, environment, management and regulation, were analyzed. 23 factors affecting rail transit system operation safety were identified. Using the basic theory and method of ISM, an adjacency matrix and a reach ability matrix were established. The factors were sorted by the ability to affect the safety. The results show that for the factors affecting the safety, vehicle system reliability, signal system reliability, power system reliabili- ty, and natural disaster are the most direct ones, that safety culture is the most deep-seated one, and that management mechanism and staff~ education level are indirect ones.