技术轨道理论对后发者追赶的启示研究

The Enlightment of Technological Trajectory Theory for Latecomers

技术轨道研究一直以来都是技术创新理论和实践所关注的前沿和热点。本研究在全面概述技术轨道的概念、特性和形成原因的基础上,探讨技术轨道理论在技术发展规律和后发追赶领域的应用,研究得出以下重要启示:①累积性弱的技术轨道对后发国家而言更易于打开机会窗口,实现跨越。但也需注意,累积性是路径依赖的来源。②加强技术预警和对技术极限的预测至关重要,是研究开发战略选择和研发资源配置的基础。③由于技术轨道的累积性和排他性,先发者会存在转轨时较高的转换成本,而后发者由于转换成本低而更易于实现转轨,从而实现后发优势。④技术早期开发和市场规模对技术轨道的形成和发展起到了关键作用,把握和利用环境也是夺取轨道竞争优势的重要环节。

The research of technological trajectory has long been the leading topic in innovation studies and practices. Based on systematically summarizing the concept, features and determinants of technological trajectory, this paper investigates the application of technological trajectory theory in the pattern of technological progress and catching up. This paper concludes the following important enlightenments. Firstly, technological trajectory with weak cumulativeness is easier for developing countries to open the window of opportunity to achieve leapfrog development. Meanwhile, cumulativeness is the source of path dependency. Secondly, it is essential to strengthen technical early warning and forecast limits of technology as they are the basis for R＆D strategic choice and R＆D resource allocation. The marginal efficiency of innovation is low when technology close to its technological limitation. Thirdly, because of the cumulativeness and exclusiveness of technological trajectory, transition cost is usually high for first movers and low for late comers which may help the later to achieve late comer advantage. Fourthly, Early technology development and market size play a key role in the formation and development of technological trajectory. To grasp and use the environment is an important part for obtaining competitive advantage of technological trajectory.