节能量交易机制配额分配与试点筛选量化分析方法

Quantitative Analysis on Quota Allocation,Pilot Selection of Energy Cap-and-trade Mechanism: Empirical Study on Hunan Province

对节能量交易的理论基础、国际经验对比和基本流程进行了梳理和分析。基于现状综合评价方法和历史节能情况,设计了子区域和分行业能耗、电耗配额分配方法;基于数据包络分析(DEA)、聚类分析和自组织特征映射法(SOM),设计了试点区域和行业筛选方法。以湖南省为案例研究区域,以2011年为基年,2015年为目标年,测算了湖南省14个市州和主要工业部门目标年的能耗和电耗配额;根据基年DEA效率分析结果,认为可优先试点娄底、湘潭、郴州、株洲、岳阳、永州6市;对湖南省38个工业部门基年能源消费总量和结构数据进行了聚类分析和SOM分析,认为可优先试点煤炭开采和洗选业、电力热力的生产和供应业等7个工业部门。文末对我国实行节能量交易机制需要整体关注的层面给出了若干建议。

This paper reviews the theoretical basis of the cap-and-trade schemes, analyzes the basic processes and compares the international experiences. Based on the status quo comprehensive evaluation method and historical energy saving statistics, this paper designs a sub-regional, sub-industry quota allocation method for energy consumption and electrical power consumption. Based on data envelopment analysis （DEA） and the clustering method of analysis and self-organizing feature map （SOM）, this paper designs a pilot area and pilot industry selection methods. Using Hunan province as a simple area, 2011 as the base year, 2015 as the target year, this paper estimates the energy consumption and power consumption quota of 14,cities and main industrial sectors in the target year. According to the base year DEA efficiency analysis, 6 cities including Loudi, Xiangtan, Chenzhou, ghuzhou, Yueyang and Yongzhou were selected as the priority pilot. According to base year energy consumption and structural data clustering analysis and SOM analysis performed in Hunan Province with 38 industrial sectors, pilots could he selected in seven industrial sectors including coal mining and washing, electricity and heat production and supply industry. At the end of this paper, a number of recommendations concerning the implementation of the overall cap-and-trade mechanism in China are given.