系统动力学在再生水供水量预测中的应用

Application of System Dynamics for the Urban Reclaimed Water Supply Predication

在全面考虑城市再生水供水量影响因素的基础上,基于系统动力学的原理和方法,构建了再生水供水量预测模型,并运用VENXIM软件进行仿真模拟,最后以华北某市中心城区作为对象进行实例研究。结果表明,系统动力学方法不仅能够全面考虑再生水供水量的各主要影响因素,而且能够将各因素间的相互作用关系有机的统一到一个模型中去;模型的系统性强,预测精度高。

A System Dynamics model for the urban reclaimed water supply prediction was established after discussing on factors that affects reclaimed water supply. The model was able to give an overall considerations to all factors affecting urban reclaimed water supply and reflect the relationships between the factors. Simulation is performed by the software, VENSIM. This study took a center zone of a North China city as a case study, results showed that the model was strong and accurate.