财政分权、政府转移支付与农村贫困——基于预算内外和收支双重维度的门槛效应分析

Fiscal Decentralization , Government Transfer Payments and Rural Poverty : Analysis of Threshold Effect Based on Dual Dimensions of Revenue and Expenditure outside and inside Budget

财政分权是否有利于减缓贫困是国内外理论界近来关注的焦点问题之一。文章首先基于中国财政分权实践从理论层面系统阐释了预算内外收支分权影响贫困的作用机制,然后以政府转移支付作为门限变量,通过建立面板门限回归模型实证考察了1995-2010年间我国财政分权对农村贫困的影响效应。结果发现:一是预算内收入与支出分权能够显著减少农村贫困,且预算内支出分权的减贫效果更加明显。二是预算外财政收支分权对农村贫困的影响存在较大差异。预算外支出分权有利于降低农村贫困发生率,而预算外收入分权程度的增加会恶化农村贫困,但并不显著。三是政府转移支付对农村贫困存在非线性门槛效应。当政府转移支付比例低于门限值0.6965时,中央政府增加对地方政府的转移支付有利于缓解农村贫困;反之,则不利于减少农村贫困。

Whether the fiscal decentralization is beneficial to poverty re- duction is recently a hot issue attracting attention from domestic and foreign theoretical circles. Firstly, based on Chinese practice of fiscal decentraliza- tion, this paper systematically explains the mechanism of the effects of reve- nue and expenditure decentralization outside and inside budget on poverty from a theoretical perspective. Secondly, it takes government transfer pay- ments as the threshold variable and empirically investigates the impact of fis- cal decentralization on rural poverty in China from 1995 to 2010 by construc- ting a panel threshold regression model. It comes to the following conclu- sions： firstly, revenue and expenditure decentralization inside budget can significantly alleviate rural poverty, and the effect of expenditure decentrali- zation inside budget on poverty reduction is more obvious; secondly, the effects of revenue and expenditure decentralization outside budget on rural poverty differ widely; expenditure decentralization outside budget is condu- cive to the decrease in the possibility of rural poverty, and the increase in the degree of revenue decentralization outside budget worsens rural poverty, but is not significant; thirdly, there exists the non-linear threshold effect of gov- ernment transfer payments on rural poverty, namely when the proportion of government transfer payments is below the threshold O. 6965, the rise in transfer payments form the central government to local governments is bene- ficial to rural poverty reduction; otherwise, it is not conducive to rural pov- erty reduction.