我国财政支出挤入挤出效应的动态时间路径分析——基于MS-VECM的实证检验

Analysis of Dynamic Time Routes of Crowding-in and Crowding-out Effects of Fiscal Expenditure in China : An Empirical Test Based on MS-VECM

文章利用1990-2012年的季度数据,采用变参数的MS-VECM模型考察了我国财政支出与私人投资的区制状态、转移概率和区制相关性。研究发现,在不同的经济发展阶段,财政支出对私人投资的影响不同,表现出挤出效应和挤入效应交替的区制转移特征。进一步研究还发现,挤出效应主要发生在财政支出增速较快和经济过热、通胀压力较大的阶段。文章结果表明,为了避免挤出效应的发生,在财政支出的融资安排上应考虑私人部门的融资约束,避免对私人投资的挤占,并且在经济过热或通胀压力较大时应适时淡出扩张性财政政策。

By using the quarterly data from 1990 to 2012, this paper es- timates the regime states, transition probability, and the regime correlation between fiscal expenditure and private investment by applying MS-VECM with varying parameters. It reaches the conclusion that in different economic development stages, the effects of fiscal expenditure on private investment vary, which are featured by regime transition with the alternation of crowing -out and crowding-in effects. Further study also shows that the crowing-out effect refers to the stages with the rapid growth of fiscal expenditure, over- heated economy and high inflation pressure. It shows that, to avoid the crowding-out effect, it should take the financing constraints of private sec- tors into account in financing arrangement of fiscal expenditure, and should timely make expansionary fiscal policy fade out under overheated economy or high inflation pressure.