我国外汇储备持有成本、规模估算与缓解增长压力的对策选择

Holding Cost and Scale Estimating of China's Foreign Exchange Reserves and Strategy Choosing of Alleviating the Pressure for Growth

我国处于人民币国际化的初期阶段，人民币的净流出和人民币流通的不均衡特点加大了外汇储备的增长压力，巨额外汇储备带来的问题变得更加突出。从理论上对外汇储备的持有成本进行分析，并在区分外汇储备的交易变动和非交易变动、估算外汇储备币种结构的基础上，估计2001～2010年我国持有外汇储备的铸币税损失和估值效应，结果表明，巨额的外汇储备不仅导致了较高的持有成本、机会成本和铸币税损失，还带来了潜在的估值损失。应推动内部均衡的实现，通过资本项目的逆差推动人民币国际化，实行更有弹性的浮动汇率制度。

in the early stage of RMB internationalization, the net outflow of RMB and the uneven growth between the offshore RMB assets and liabilities will increase the pressure on the growth of China＇s foreign exchange reserves. Defining the cost of holding foreign exchange reserves theoretically, and then estimating the cost of holding foreign exchange reserves born by China from 2001 to 2010 on the basis of the estimation of the currency structure and the different causes of foreign exchange reserves, show that huge foreign exchange reserves not only leads to the higher holding cost, opportunity cost and Seigniorage loss, but brings the potential valuation loss. We should promote the implementation of internal equilibrium, push the internationalization of RMB by capital account deficit, and carry out a more flexible floating exchange rate system.