基于Asymmetric Laplace分布的金融风险度量

Financial Risk Measurement Based on Asymmetric Laplace Distribution

金融资产的损益分布具有明显尖峰肥尾和不对称等特征,本文采用非对称拉普拉斯分布来刻画这些风险特征,给出了市场风险VaR和CVaR度量的AL参数法和AL-MC法。选取上证指数、日经225指数及S&P500指数为研究对象,结合各股市的风险特征,给出了VaR和CVaR度量及其返回检验和准确性评价。结果表明,基于AL分布的风险度量模型具有其合理性和适用性,能很好地度量市场风险。

The actual distribution of asset returns possesses the characters of steep peaks, heavy tails and asymmetry, in this paper, asymmetric laplace distribution is used to fit the data of asset returns and described these features. Then, AL parametric method and AL-MC method are employed to measure VaR and CVaR. The Shanghai Composite Index, Nikkei225 Stock Index and S;P500 Index are selected in the calculation of VaR and CVaR considering actual stocks risk features. Also, the back testing and accuracy assessment of risk are given. The results show that the risk measurement model based on Asymmetric Laplace distribution is reasonable and applicable and can effectively estimated the market risk.