基于投入-产出模型的灾后经济非均衡与路径恢复研究

Imbalance of Economy after Disaster Based on Input-output Model and Path Recovery

由于现有的投入-产出(IO)模型不能很好地模拟灾后经济出现的非均衡状态,因此在开放的IO模型(x=Ax+f)中引入劳动力市场(L=lx)并重建封闭模型(x=M.x),可以更好地通过经济系统内部劳动力与最终需求和总产出之间的内在联系,反映灾后经济循环流网络的非均衡状态,为恢复重建建立起点。本文在前人的研究基础上,完善了封闭IO模型中真实工资F矩阵的计算方法;通过在IO模型中引入灾害损失系数模拟灾后经济的非均衡状态,并以情境分析的方法寻找灾后可能的恢复路径;接着以2007年四川省投入-产出表计算2008年汶川地震造成的产出损失并模拟了可能的恢复路径,验证了模型的有效性。研究结果表明,该模型可以为政府在发生大灾后迅速找到恢复"瓶颈"、做出科学重建决策提供理论依据。

The existing input-output model can＇t adequately describe the imbalance of economy after disaster. Introducing the labor market（ L = lx ）into the open IO model（ x = Ax ＋f ）and reestablishing the closed model（ x = M· x ）, it can better describe the imbalance of economic circular flow by the relationship of labor, final demand and total output after the disaster, and set the beginning of reconstruction. Based on the work of predecessors, the calculation method of F matrix in the closed IO model is improved in this paper; the imbalance of economy after the disaster is simulated by introducing the loss coefficient, and the possible recovery paths is searched by the scenario analysis. Then the output loss of Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 is computed by the IO table of Sichuan in 2007, and the validity of this model is verified by simulating the possible recovery paths. The results shows that this model can help government to find recovery ＂bottleneck＂ promptly after the disaster and make scientific decision of reconstruction.