1950-2010年中国洪涝灾情的频率规模关系

The relationship between the frequency and the scale of flood situation in China from 1950 to 2010

本文借鉴相关领域研究概念,对洪涝灾情的1950-2000年的变化动态,特别是频率与规模的关系做了定量的分析,划分了风险的可接受与不可接受区。研究结果发现:(1)总体上,60年来洪涝灾害的受灾和成灾面积不断增大,而因灾死亡人口和倒塌房屋间数总体上不断减少。(2)洪涝灾害因灾死亡人口数、受灾面积和倒塌房屋间数与累积频率的关系与著名的古登堡-里查德关系类似,呈现良好的幂律关系。(3)通过借鉴地质灾害领域相关可接受风险概念,划定了洪涝灾害的年因灾死亡人口数的可接受与不可接受灾情的界线。(4)本文只是借鉴相关领域研究概念,试探性的对洪涝灾害进行了探索,在将来的研究中还有待继续和深化。

This paper analyzes the change of flood situation from 1950 to 2010 and the relationship between flood frequencies and scales with reference to the research concept of related fields, and divides the risk area into acceptable and unacceptable areas. Research results show that： （1） in general, disaster-affected and suffered areas are increased, while population death and collapsed buildings are decreased in the past 60 years; （2） the relationship between population death, disaster-affected/suffered areas, collapsed building number and accumulative frequency shows good power-law relationship which is similar to the famous Gutenberg-Richard relations; （3） the risk was divided into acceptable and unacceptable areas with reference to the related fields, and draw a line between the acceptable and unacceptable annual casualties due to floods; （4） the tentative division explores the flood hazards in China and needs to be deepened in the future.