日本技术性贸易壁垒对我国农产品出口贸易的影响——基于VAR模型实证分析

Impact of Japan’s Technical Trade Barriers on China’s Agricultural Export: An Empirical Study Based on VAR Model

日本是我国最大的农产品出口市场。日本苛刻的技术性要求已经成为影响我国农产品出口日本的主要障碍。本文基于向量自回归模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解实证分析了日本技术性贸易壁垒对我国农产品出口影响的一般趋势及动态特征。研究结果表明:日本技术性贸易壁垒的存在会对我国农产品出口持续产生负面影响,但这种影响随着时间推移而逐渐变小;它对农产品出口波动预测均方误差的贡献度较大。针对上述结论,文章最后提出了对策建议,以期我国农产品出口企业能够在复杂的中日关系中做到未雨绸缪。

As Japan stands as China＇ s largest market for agricultural export, Japan＇s technical trade barriers have become a major obstacle that affects China＇ s agricultural exports. Based on the VAR model, this paper uses impulse response functions and variance decomposition to empirically study the general direction and dynamic attributes of the influence of Japan＇s technical trade barriers on China＇s agricultural export. The results show that Japan＇s technical trade barriers have been adversely affecting China＇s agricultural export, while such a negative effect declines with time; such barriers also significantly contribute to the mean square error of predicted fluctuations in China＇s agricultural export. In reply to the above conclusions, a few corresponding countermeasures are proposed at the end of the paper, hoping to prepare Chinese enterprises engaged in agricultural export to take necessary precautions while doing business in a complicated China-Japan relationship.