二元人口、产业结构和人民币实际汇率波动

Dualistic Population, Industrial Structure and RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations

文章基于新开放经济宏观经济学框架确定了实际汇率波动的三类基本影响因素,扩展引入了我国二元人口和产业结构两类因素,并运用VAR模型进行实证分析,结果表明:人民币实际汇率的波动主要由实际货币余额和名义汇率解释,生产率的解释力存在但不突出的原因是二元人口结构因素削弱了B-S效应,我国产业结构因素对实际汇率波动的解释力最低。进一步,货币政策和名义汇率应作为调节人民币实际汇率的有效工具,随着我国农村人口比例的下降,B-S效应对实际汇率的影响将会更显著。

This paper identifies three basic contributing factors of real exchange rate fluctuations based on new open economy macroeconomics, and then further introduces two influential factors including dualistic population and industrial structure. The VAR model is applied to conduct an empirical analysis, which comes up with the following findings. To start with, RMB real exchange rate fluctuations are mainly accounted for by real money balances and the nominal exchange rate, whereas productivity is non-prominently accountable for the fluctuations as the dualistic population structure weakens the B-S effect; among all the contributing factors, China＇s industrial structure has the slightest effect on real exchange rate fluctuations. Furthermore, the paper argues that monetary policies and the nominal exchange rate should be RMB real exchange rate. And also, with portion, the impact of the B-S effect on nificant. adopted as effective tools to adjust the the declining of the rural population proreal exchange rate will become more sig-