摘要
工业化发展阶段、居民收入水平及汽车产业发展趋势决定了消费柴汽比的阶段性特征。中国消费柴汽比的峰值出现在2005年,之后进入了长期下行区间。预计2013年、2015年消费柴汽比分别下降到1.93和1.85,2020年、2030年将分别下降到1.5和0.9。受区域经济发展水平和结构差异的影响,各地区消费柴汽比的发展阶段可以分为三个梯队:华东、华南属于第一梯队,西南、华中属于第二梯队,东北、华北、西北属于第三梯队。针对柴汽比下降的长期趋势和区域性特征,建议:1)政府及行业管理部门提前做好应对柴油资源过剩的预案;2)炼厂新建和改扩建项目要充分考虑所在区域的消费柴汽比变化趋势;3)利用价格杠杆逐步调低生产的柴汽比并鼓励柴油销售。
The diesel-gasoline consumption ratio is a function of the stage of industrial development, personal income, and the automotive industry's development trajectory. After peaking in 2005, China's diesel-gasoline consumption ratio entered a long downward trend. The ratio will steadily decrease to 1.93, 1.85, 1.5 and 0.9 in 2013, 2015, 2020 and 2030 respectively. A distinct ratio applies to each of three regional groupings determined by their economic development and structural differences: East and South China; Central and Southwest China; and North, Northeast and Northwest China respectively. In accordance with the long downward trend and the regional differences: 1) governmental and industrial-management departments should develop a plan to deal with expected excess diesel resources; 2) the trend in the local diesel-gasoline consumption ratio should be considered in new and expanded refinery projects; 3) price leverage should be used to gradually reduce the diesel-gasoline ratio and encourage diesel sales.
出处
《国际石油经济》
2013年第4期76-79,112,共4页
International Petroleum Economics
