基于N叉树供应链的风险评估及优化

Method of Quantitative Assessment and Optimization for Supply Chain Based on N-Tree Model

针对传统供应链模型缺乏对风险的定量评估,且设计过于复杂,未给出成熟的优化方式的问题,提出了基于产品的N叉树供应链的风险定量评估及供应链优化方案。算法建立了基于不同企业提供统一的基于N叉树供应链模型;采用全概率公式和贝叶斯公式对企业内部风险以及企业间风险的传递进行了定量评估;通过选择合适供应商和用户优化供应链结构。实验结果表明,该算法能有效降低供应链风险,较好地实现了企业利益最大化。

Aim to tackle the problems of few quantitative assessments, overly complex and lack of mutual optimization in existing supply chain models, we proposed a quantitative assessment and optimization for supply chain based on N-Tree model. In this algorithm, a consistent N-Tree model is established for different kinds of businesses, meanwhile quantitative risks assessment is applied in corporation interior and inter corporation using complete probabilistic and bayesian analysis, further supply chain structure can be optimized by adaptive suppliers and customers selection. Our proposed method may reduce supply chain risk effectively, realizing the maximuminterests of the enterprise.