基于专利地图的技术分析预测方法研究

Research on the Method of Technology Analyzing & Forecasting Based on Patent Map

在当今技术创新越来越受到全世界政府机构、企事业单位重视的情形下,进行技术分析与预测的研究十分必要。从专利地图的角度,分析探讨了专利与技术分析预测之间的联系,结合当前以专利为研究对象的一些技术预测方式和方法,总结出进行专利技术分析预测的三个主要方面——技术活跃度、技术生命周期、技术进化方向;并从这三个方面具体介绍了利用专利地图来进行技术分析与预测的方法。

The research on technology analyzing forecasting is much necessary as technological innova tion becomes more and more important to governments and enterprises around the world.This article anal yses and discusses the relation between patents and technology analyzing forecasting from the view of patent map,and summerizes the three main aspects of patent technology analyzing forecasting： technolo gy activity,technology cycle time,and technology evolution trend consulting the current study on patent technology analyzing and forecasting.Then,the method of technology analyzing and forecasting is specifi cally introduced from the three aspects.