生育政策和社会经济状况对中国出生性别比失衡的影响

How Sex Ratio at Birth in China is Determined by Fertility Policy and Social Economy Factors

文章提出出生性别比失衡的多层次影响因素模型,并运用分层模型来研究生育政策和地区社会经济状况对中国出生性别比失衡的影响。研究发现,即使在控制妇女个人和家庭特征、地区社会经济状况的情况下,生育政策对中国出生性别比失衡仍然有显著影响,生育政策越严格,出生性别比失衡越严重。研究还发现地区社会经济状况对出生性别比失衡有缓解作用,城镇化水平的提高、居民收入的增加都可以减缓出生性别比的失衡程度。不考虑地区社会经济状况容易低估生育政策对出生性别比失衡的加剧作用。

We mainly use the HLM model to study the contributions of the fertility policy and social economy factors to the sex ratio at birth in China. The fertility policy not only has direct effects on the sex ratio at birth, but also has indirect effects by the interaction with some individual characters of the women. Some economy factors and social factors also play an important part in deterring the increase of the sex ratio at birth.