人民币升值中外部压力的冲击与效应——以美国施压为例

THE SHOCKS AND EFFECTS OF EXTERNAL PRESSURE ON RMB APPRECIATION——An Investigation of American Pressure

本文着眼于美国施压事件,构建两国博弈模型,并利用事件分析方法论证外部压力对于人民币汇率升值的作用及其机制。首先,本文基于委托代理模型,构建国内外利益集团博弈模型,以此分析外部压力对于人民币汇率升值的作用机制,认为外部压力会推动人民币汇率升值。其次,本文测算了美国施压事件前后人民币汇率的变动情况,从而考察美国施压事件的效果,认为美国施压事件对于人民币汇率升值并不显著,但立法事件的效果要优于行政事件。最后,本文利用VAR模型观察外部压力对于人民升值的短期冲击和长期效应,本文发现:在长期均衡中,外部压力无法推动人民币升值;而在短期影响中,外部压力的冲击会迫使人民币汇率产生明显升值。

The paper studies the effect of the external pressure on the RMB appreciation, based on Game model, VAR model and event study. Firstly, this paper builds a game model of the domestic and foreign interest group to analyze the effect of external pressure on the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, and conclude that external pressure has an effect on the appreciation of RMB; Secondly, this paper esti- mates the changes of exchange rate of RMB before and after the US pressure on China, which reaches the conclusion that United States＇ pressure has no great effects on the appreciation of RMB, however the legis- lative events have more pronounced effect than the chief events; Lastly, this paper builds a VAR model to investigate long-term and short-term influence. The empirical results show that external can not promote the appreciation of RMB in the long-run equilibrium while in the short-term equilibrium, external pressure will force the appreciation of RMB exchange rate significantly.