水库水电站中长期隐随机优化调度综述

A Review on Implicit Stochastic Optimization for Medium-long Term Operation of Reservoirs and Hydropower Stations

随着中国水电开发积极有序推进,大型梯级水电格局逐渐形成,对水电站群的实际调度运行提出了一系列新的需求和挑战。文中概述了水库水电站确定性优化调度理论的发展历程和2种随机优化理论思想,在阐述隐随机优化调度原理的基础上,对目前国内外常用的隐随机调度决策与自变量因子进行了归纳分析。重点介绍了多元线性回归法、智能算法、贝叶斯网络法和模糊集方法这4类调度规则制定方法,并分别对各方法的优缺点进行了总结评价。最后,提出水库水电站隐随机优化调度研究的几点展望,为进一步提高水库水电站实际调度水平提供技术支撑。

With the positive and orderly promotion of hydropower development in China, the large-scale cascade hydropower configuration is forming generally, which makes new demands on and challenges to the actual operation of reservoirs and hydropower stations. This paper summarizes the development of the deterministic optimal operation theory and two stochastic optimization theories. After describing the principle of implicit stochastic operation, a summary on current operation decisionmaking and independent factors at home and abroad is given. While focus is on multiple linear regression, intelligent algorithms, Bayesian networks, and the fuzzy set method, their advantages and disadvantages are also briefly treated. Finally, further prospects on implicit stochastic optimization for operation of reservoirs and hydropower stations are presented to provide technical support for improving the level of actual operation.