基于SVM的微博转发规模预测方法

Predict algorithm of micro-blog retweet scale based on SVM

为了评价微博的传播效果,在分析影响用户转发行为因素的基础上,提出了采用用户影响力、用户活跃度、兴趣相似度、微博内容重要性和用户亲密程度五项特征进行转发行为预测的SVM算法,以及基于该算法的转发规模预测算法。最后给出了传播规模预测的评价方法。针对新浪微博用户数据的实验表明,预测精度达到了86.63%。

Based on the analysis of the factors that affect retweet behavior,this paper proposed a predict SVM algorithm with five features：user influence, user activity, interest similarity, the importance of micro-blog content and users closeness. Fur- thermore,it proposed the predict algorithm of retweet scale on the basis of SVM, also, gave a method to evaluate the predict accuracy. The experiment with Sina micro-blog data shows a good resuh that the predict accuracy is up to 86.63%.