感染性腹泻病的气象预报模式的建立与验证

Establishment and Verification of Meteorological Forecast Model of Infectious Diarrhea

[目的]通过分析上海市感染性腹泻发病情况与气象要素的关系,建立感染性腹泻病的气象预报模式。[方法]收集上海市2002—2008年逐日感染性腹泻发病数和同期气象资料,分析气象因素与感染性腹泻发病的关系,采用时间序列的广义相加模型,建立感染性腹泻预测模型,利用2009—2010年逐日报告确诊的感染性腹泻病例和逐日气象数据检验模型的预测效果。根据验证结果,提出感染性腹泻病的预测预警应用。[结果]所建立的感染性腹泻预测模型对发病趋势拟合符合率为66.43%,对流行季节(5月至10月)拟合符合率为77.23%。形成腹泻指数并运用其开展相应的防病提示。[结论]感染性腹泻病的气象预报模式可较好地为上海市提供肠道传染病预警服务,为疾病预防控制部门传染病防控提供科学依据。

[ Objective ] To establish a meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea by analyzing the association of infectious diarrhea incidence with meteorological factors. [ Methods ] Based on the daily incidents of infectious diarrhea and weather conditions of Shanghai in 2002-2008, a forecast model was established using a generalized additive model for time series data. Corresponding daily incidents of 2009-2010 were used for verification. Forecast service for infectious diseases were then proposed. [ Results ] The agreement of the forecast model fitted to the selected actual incident data was 66.43%. The agreement of the forecast model in epidemic season （from May to October） was 77.23%. Diarrhea index system was recommended for public health service. [ Conclusion ] The meteorological forecast model of infectious diarrhea can provide diarrhea prevention service to residents of Shanghai and scientific basis for prevention and control of infectious diseases in related governmental agency.