外商直接投资、城市化与中国CO_2排放——来自时间序列和省际面板数据的经验证据

Foreign Direct Investment,Urbanization and China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions——Empirical Evidence from the Time Series and Provincial Panel Data

从理论上阐释了外商直接投资、城市化对CO2排放的影响机理,利用中国1980~2011年的时间序列数据和1997~2011年的省际面板数据,实证检验了外商直接投资、城市化对中国CO2排放的影响。时间序列的经验估计结果表明,外商直接投资对CO2排放总量和人均排放量具有显著的负向影响,其弹性分别为-0.11%和-0.13%;城市化则具有显著的正向影响,其弹性分别为0.83%和0.64%。面板数据模型的估计结果表明,外商直接投资的影响为负,但弹性系数较小,城市化则促进了CO2排放。引入外商直接投资与城市化交乘项的检验结果显示,无论是时间序列模型还是面板数据模型,外商直接投资的影响弹性系数显著增大,同时,两者的交乘项也表现出强烈的负效应,说明其能有效减少CO2排放。该研究还表明,贸易增长促进了中国CO2的排放,经济增长是导致中国CO2排放快速增长的主要因素。

Firstly,this paper gives the interpretation of mechanism about FDI and urbanization impact on carbon dioxide emissions,then tests the impact of FDI and urbanization on China＇s carbon dioxide emissions,by the use of China’s time series data in 1980-2011 and provincial panel data in 1997-2011.The conclusions of the study are as follows（：1）By estimating time series,the result indicates that FDI shows a significant negative impact on total carbon dioxide emissions and per carbon dioxide emissions,the elasticity are-0.11% and-0.13% respectively.Urbanization shows a significant positive impact and the elasticity are 0.83% and 0.64%.By estimating panel data,the result shows that the impact of FDI is negative,but the coefficient of elasticity is small,and the urbanization promotes carbon dioxide emissions.（2）By introducing the cross-multiply of FDI and urbanization,whether it is a time series model or panel data model,the elasticity of the impact of FDI increases significantly,the cross-multiply items shows a strong negative effect,which can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions.（3）The study also shows that the growth of trade promotes China＇s carbon dioxide emissions,and economic growth is a major factor in the high-speed growth of Chinese carbon dioxide emissions.