甘肃岷县漳县6．6级地震的前瞻性预测验证及震后趋势分析

The verification of prospective prediction for the Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquake in Gansu province and an analysis on the future earthquake situation

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者于2013年7月21日对海原地震区未来震情进行了分析,并给出了该地震区较大地震事件的震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将其前瞻性强震四要素预测结果与2013年7月22日甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震参数进行比较,结果表明该前瞻性预测是一次较为成功的强震预测案例,2000年景泰MS5.9级震群事件是2013年甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震的直接导火索.

Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us, the prediction results, including the magnitude, place, critical strain, and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for Haiyuan seismic zone have been published in advance on 21 July 2013. In comparison with the Minxian-Zhangxian Ms 6.6 earthquake in Gansu occurred on 22 July 2013, it is thought to be a successful earthquake prediction. Meanwhile, it is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Minxian-Zhangxian Ms 6. 6 earthquake occurred in Gansu is attributed to the Jingtai earthquake Ms 5.9 in 2000.