中国服务贸易商品集中度与竞争力的互动机制——基于中国服务贸易数据的研究

The Interactive Mechanism between Concentration Degree and Competitiveness:A Research Based on the Data of Chinese Service Trade

通过对中国服务贸易商品集中度和服务贸易竞争力变化趋势的研究发现,中国服务贸易商品集中度呈先下降、后基本保持平稳的态势,中国服务贸易竞争力呈整体下降趋势;利用协整关系和误差修正模型研究中国服务贸易商品集中度对服务贸易竞争力的影响,从长期来看,服务贸易进出口集中度、进口集中度对竞争力的影响为正,出口集中度对服务贸易竞争力存在负面影响;服务贸易进出口商品集中度、出口商品集中度、进口商品集中度均是服务贸易竞争力的格兰杰原因,服务贸易竞争力不是服务贸易进出口商品集中度、服务贸易出口商品集中度、服务贸易进口商品集中度的格兰杰原因。

This paper analyzes the changing trend of the concentration degree and competitiveness of Chinese service trade. The results show that the trend of the concentration degree is declining first and then remaining stable, and the competitiveness is downward over this period. Using the cointegration test and VECM model, it finds that from a long period, the impact of the concentration degree of Chinese service trade and the concentration degree of service import trade on the competitiveness are both positive, and the impact of the concentration degree of the service export trade on the concentration degree is negative. The Granger causality test shows that the concentration degrees of Chinese service trade, service export trade and service import trade are all the Granger reason of the competitiveness of Chinese service trade, but the competitiveness of Chinese service trade is not the Granger reason of the concentration degrees of Chinese service trade, service export trade and service import trade.