我国道路伤害与交通环境因素关系的流行病学分析

An epidemiological analysis on the relationship between road injury and traffic environment in China

目的 探讨交通环境因素对道路伤害的影响 ,为减少交通事故发生提供依据。方法采用主成分回归分析法分析我国 195 1～ 1998年机动车数量、公路运输量和公路里程数等因素与人身安全的关系。结果 人身安全与机动车数量、公路货运量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数呈正相关关系 (相关系数分别是 0 .8714、0 .96 91、0 .96 11、0 .95 10 ,P =0 .0 0 0 5 ) ,即道路伤害死亡率 (/ 10万 )随着机动车数量、公路货运量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数增加而升高 ,人身安全水平降低 ;采用逐步筛选法将各交通环境因素引入方程 ,并利用主成分回归分析法以克服各因素间的多重共线性 ,其中机动车数量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数进入回归方程 (Y =- 3 .7197+ 1.49E 0 3X1+ 5 .2E 0 6X3+ 6 .19E 0 2X4 )。结论 机动车数量、公路客运量和有路面公路里程数的增加是导致人身安全水平降低的主因 ,影响强度因素依次为有路面公路里程数、公路客运量、机动车数量。通过改善交通环境 ,加强交通安全管理和提高居民的交通安全意识 ,可以减少道路伤害的发生。

Objective To explore the influence of traffic environment on road injury so as to provide basis for prevention and control. Methods Principal component regression analysis was used to explain the relationship between road injury and the numbers of vehicle, capacity of road transport and mileage of rigid highway. Results Results showed a positive correlation between level of personal safety (LPS) and the numbers of vehicle, volume of road haulage, volume of passenger transport, mileage of rigid highway (correlation coefficients were 0.871 4 , 0.969 1 , 0.961 1 , 0.951 0 , P = 0.000 5 ). The numbers of vehicle, volume of road haulage, volume of passenger transport and mileage of rigid highway were increasing when LPS decreased. Principal component regression analysis overcame multi collinearty of independent variables and obtained a regression equation y= -3.719 7 + 1.49 E-03X 1+ 5.2 E-06X 3+ 6.19 E-02X 4. Conclusion The primary determinants of LPS were numbers of vehicle, volume of road haulage, volume of passenger and mileage of rigid highway. Road injury thus could be reduced through improving the traffic environment, strengthening the traffic administration as well as promoting traffic safety.