碳排放与社会经济发展

Carbon Emissions and Socio-economic Development

现阶段,化石能源是决定一个国家社会经济发展的关键要素之一。在其使用过程中导致的CO2排放(简称碳排放)是化石能源消耗的直接量度,因此是国家社会经济发展的直接反映。本文通过对全球及中国的碳排放、社会经济、环境等历史数据的分析,探讨了人均累计碳排放量与社会发展,包括人均GDP、工业化、城市化、及就业率的关系。结果表明,工业化和城市化进程、就业率以及社会财富的积累与碳排放有着显著的正相关关系,减少排放将阻滞社会经济发展。另一方面,碳排放所带来的负面影响,包括污染问题、人类健康等问题也不容小觑。我国要吸取西方发达国家的经验教训,平衡好碳排放与社会发展之间的关系,坚持可持续发展,加快产业结构的优化与调整,推进生态文明建设,实现美丽中国的愿景。

Fossil energy is one of key factors to constrain social-economic development of a nation and thus the carbon emission from its combustion can be a measurement of the national social-eco- nomic development. In this paper, we analyzed the relationship between cumulative per capita car- bon emissions and four socio-economic indicators （per capita GDP, industrialization level, urbaniza- tion level, and employment rate）, using historical datasets of carbon emissions, socioeconomic de- velopment, and environment both in the world and China. The results showed that the process of industrialization and urbanization, employment rate, and accumulation of social wealth were all sig- nificantly related with the amount of carbon emissions, and that the reduced carbon emissions could certainly constrain social-economic growth. On the other hand, the carbon emission could cause neg- ative impacts, including the probelems of environment pollutions and human health. Therefore, taking a lesson from developed countries on the development-environment relationships, China should balance the relationship between the carbon emissions and social-economic growth, adhere to sustainable development, speed up the optimization and adjustment of industrial structure, promote the ecological civilization construction, to fulfill the vision of ＂Beautiful China＂.