中国主体功能区协调发展与产业结构演化

A Simulation on Regional Coordination and Industrial Structure Evolution Oriented to the Main Functional Areas of China

主体功能区思想下的国土协调开发是当前主导的区域发展理论。这种区域思想指导下的产业结构演化路径以及由此形成的新型区域协调关系是需要关注的重大问题。基于省级多区域动态CGE模型,面向主体功能区格局进行区域分析,并开展白、黄、蓝3种区域产业政策情景模拟,其中白情景作为比对的基准情景,黄情景和蓝情景分别刻划面向优化开发主导区金融服务业的倾向政策和面向重点开发主导区工业发展的倾向政策。研究发现主体功能区的竞争主要体现为优化开发主导区和重点开发主导区之间的竞争,在推进"主体功能区政策"作用下,区域差距将会增大,区域自然收敛的动力还不足以较快缩小区域差距,从而需要更强烈的区域政策进行调控。另外,区域产业结构自然演化的结果会带来"自动"碳减排,从而衍生出更强的减排政策评判标准。

The ideology of main functional areas is a dominant regional development theory.In the framework of the new theory,the industrial structure evolution path and the new inter-regional coordination mode are key problems that should be focused on.Based on a self-developed inter-province multi-regional dynamic CGE model,this article classifies the regions oriented to the main functional areas,and simulates 3 regional industry policy scenarios.Those scenarios are called ＇white scenario＇,＇yellow scenario＇ and ＇blue scenario＇ respectively.The ＇white scenario＇ is a baseline scenario for contrast,and economic system runs without external disturbance.In the ＇yellow scenario＇,investment of the finance,insurance and service industry in the optimized development area are increased,which represents a tendency of preferential policies on the optimized development area.In the ＇blue scenario＇,investment of the construction,delivery of warehousing,wholesale and retail,and real estate in the key development areas are increased,which represents a tendency of preferential policies on the key development area.Scenarios＇ simulations show that the competition among main functional areas always reflect in the competition between optimized development zone and key development zone,and the natural regional convergence force is not enough to narrow regional disparities,so more tough regional regulate policies is needed.The natural evolution of regional industrial structure would induce ＂automatic＂ CO2 reduction,which deduct a more rigorous judgment for CO2reduction policies.In the current development trend,China＇s regional gap is narrowing.However,once the policies of the main functional areas run,regional economic gaps would be wide again.Moreover,financial policy priorities in optimize the development area would lead to a wider regional gap,which is the most conducive policy to promote overall economic growth on the other hand.How to get more knowledge about regional coordination and regional management needs further research.