我国农村银行业结构影响因素分析

Analysis of Influential Factors for China’s Rural Banking Industry Structure

使用2006—2010年1 655个县(市)的面板数据对我国农村银行业结构的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明农村地区金融市场规模、经济增长、经济结构、政府干预程度以及投资率均对农村银行业结构具有显著影响:农村存贷款规模的扩大、农村经济增长及农村地区第二产业中规模以上工业企业比重的增加,会降低我国农村银行业存贷款市场集中度;而县域财政支出占当年名义GDP比重和农村固定资产投资总额占GDP比重的增加,会提高我国农村银行业存贷款市场集中度。因此,一方面,应促进农村地区规模以上工业企业的发展,并带动中小企业发展,实现农村经济的快速增长,以促进农村地区金融市场规模的扩大;另一方面,要减少和消除地方政府对农村经济的过度干预;从而有效降低我国农村银行业市场集中度。

Based on panel data of 1655 counties（cities） during 2006-2010,empirical analysis is conducted on the influential factors for China＇s rural banking industry structure,and the results show that rural banking industry structure is significantly affected by financial market scale,economic growth,economic structure,governmental interference extent and investment rate in China＇s rural areas,that the deposit and loan market concentration ratio of China＇s rural banks can be decreased by the enlargement of rural deposit and loan scale,by rural economic growth and by the increase of the ratio of scaled industrial enterprises in secondary industry in China＇s rural areas,however,the deposit and loan market concentration ratio of China＇s rural banks can be increased by the increasing of the ratio of county-regional financial expenditure to annual nominal GDP and the ratio of rural fixed asset investment quantity to GDP,thus,on the one hand,China should boost the development of scaled industrial enterprises in rural areas to drive medium-sized and small enterprise development and realize rapid growth of rural economy to promote the enlargement of rural financial market scale,on the other hand,China should reduce excessive interference of local government on rural economy so that the market concentration ratio of China＇s rural banks can be effectively decreased.