中国边境省区入境旅游发展的时间同步性与区域响应

Time Synchronization and Regional Response of Inbound Tourism Development in China’s Border Provinces

依据1980—2011年中国边境9省区入境旅游客流量和旅游收入数据,分析其入境旅游发展的时间同步性与区域响应,结果表明:中国边境省区入境旅游可分为1980—1991年的缓慢增长期、1992—2003年的快速增长期和2004—2011年的加速增长期3个发展阶段;边境9省区入境旅游的增长变化、波动周期大致相同,但相关系数较低;各边境省区入境旅游发展还存在着较大的差异。依据基准年数值划分边境各省区各阶段入境旅游发展的起点,依据平均增速划分边境各省区各阶段入境旅游的发展速度,可动态地刻画不同省区不同阶段入境旅游的发展态势,揭示各省区入境旅游发展的区域响应,并为各省区入境旅游发展的动态比较研究和旅游发展规划制定提供参考依据。

On the basis of the data of the inbound tourist flow amount and tourism income in nine provinces in China＇s border areas during 1980-2011,time synchronization and regional response for their tourism development are analyzed,and the results show that the inbound tourism of China＇s border provinces can be divided into such three development stages as slow growth stage during 1980-1991,rapid growth stage during 1992-2003 and accelerated growth stage during 2004-2011,that the growth change and volatility period of inbound tourism in the border provinces are approximately the same,but their correlation number is low,that there is big difference in inbound tourism development between different border provinces,that the development trend of inbound tourism at different stages in different provinces can be dynamically described according to development starting point for inbound tourism at different stage in different border provinces divided by standard year data and according to development speed of inbound tourism at different stages in different border provinces divided by average growth speed,in order to reveal regional response of inbound tourism development in different provinces and provide reference for dynamic comparative research on inbound tourism development in different provinces and for tourism development plan-making.