基于脱钩理论的安徽经济增长与碳排放动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Economic Growth and Carbon Emission in Anhui Province Based on Decoupling Theory

在中部崛起和皖江城市带开发的大背景下,工业发展成为安徽经济增长的最主要动力,但高能耗和高碳排放也成为伴生安徽经济增长的一个不争事实。根据安徽省1990—2011年的经济数据,计算安徽省经济增长的碳排放总量,运用脱钩理论分析安徽经济增长的碳排放动态脱钩变化,分析表明安徽经济增长对碳排放的脱钩存在复钩的可能,且表现为三阶段动态复钩的变化趋势。据此,安徽省应调整产业结构、审慎产业转移、开发清洁能源、加大环保治理投入和加强森林碳汇,实现低碳发展。

In the context of Central China Rising and Urban Development along the Yangtze River in Anhui, the industrial development becomes the chief motion in Anhui economic growth, but high energy consumption and carbon emission has become an indisputable fact in Anhui economic growth. This paper selects Anhui economic data from 1990 to 2011, calculates the total carbon emission, dynamically analyzes the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission based on the perspective of decoupling theory. It reveals that there exists a three-stage dynamic trend of coupling and that there is a re-coupling possibility between Anhui economic growth and carbon emission. Therefore, Anhui should adjust industrial structure, carefully deal with industrial transfer, exploit clean energy, increase investment in environment protection and strengthen forest carbon sinking.