人口政策调整的一般均衡分析

Analysis of the Choice of Population Policy by CGE Model

随着我国人口老龄化日益严重,学界和公众关于调整"一胎"生育管制政策的呼声日高。那么不同的人口政策到底会对中国经济产生多大的影响?按户主年龄和家庭规模大小对家庭类型细分为12组,并引入动态CGE模型中,定量分析了不同人口政策调整对中国经济增长和结构的影响。完善单独、推行二孩晚育政策下的基准情景的人均GDP水平最高;执行严厉计划生育政策的LOW情景的GDP增长率和人均GDP水平最低;完全放宽人口政策的HIGH情景,虽然经济增长速度较快,但是承受着巨大的资源环境压力和人均GDP水平不如基准情景。从人均GDP和环境压力角度来看,我国应该完善"单独"政策,适当推行"二孩晚育"的人口政策,既有利于经济的发展,又能适当减轻社会环境的承载压力。

With the growing population aging in China,the academic community and the publicask for the adjustment of the one - child birth control policy. It is an important issue how different population policy affects the Chinese economy. According to the head of household age and family size of the household, we divided the household sector in the CGE model in to 12 groups, and analyze the impact of different policy on the China＇ s economic growth and structure using CGE model. The research results show thatthe baseline scenario which the government im- plement the two children policy has the highest level of per capital GDP, the Low scenario which implement stringently the＂ one child＂ family planning policy has the lowest GDP growth rate and level of GDP per capita, when the government completely relax the population policies in HIGH scenario, economic growth of High scenario is the highest , but per capita GDP level is not as good as the baseline scenario. Moreover, the High scenario put huge pressure on the environment＇ s resources. Therefore, from the perspective of per capita GDP and environmental pressures, China should implement population policy in the baseline scenario, it isnot only conducive to improve economic development, but also to reduce the pressure on environment.