产出波动对我国贸易失衡的影响——基于经常账户跨期方法的实证研究

The Influence of Output Fluctuation on China's Trade Imbalances——Based on Empirical Analysis to Inter-temporal Method of the Current Account

经常账户的跨期方法认为,贸易余额主要取决于生产的跨时比较优势、跨时消费偏好和跨期贸易条件。本文通过时间序列的协整分析发现:我国的贸易余额与生产的跨时比较优势即产出波动、实际利率、汇率、相对价格有着长期的协整关系。产出波动和汇率对贸易余额的影响显著,实际利率和相对价格对贸易余额的影响不显著。其中,产出波动是贸易余额的Granger原因,我国的贸易失衡主要受产出波动即生产的跨时比较优势而非跨期贸易条件的影响。

Inter-temporal method of current account believes that the key causes of trade surplus are Inter-temporal comparative advantage,Inter-temporal consumption preference and The Terms of Inter-temporal Trade.Through the co-integration analysis based on the time series,we find the balance of trade in China and Inter-temporal comparative advantage or output fluctuation,real interest rate,exchange rate,comparative price have co-integration relationship in a long-term.The output fluctuation and real interest rates have significant influence to the balance of trade.Exchange rate and comparative price are not significant.The output fluctuation is the granger cause of the trade balance and output fluctuation or Inter-temporal comparative advantage other than the terms of Inter-temporal trade is crucial to the trade imbalance of China.