贸易成本如何影响贸易扩张路径——基于企业异质性视角的二元边际考察

How Trade Costs Affect Trade Expansion Path——A Review of Duel Margins from the Perspective of Enterprise Heterogeneity

依据Kancs改进的异质性企业理论模型,构建了不同贸易成本对贸易扩张路径的影响机制,并结合中国和20个贸易伙伴国的贸易和发展数据模拟估计固定和可变贸易成本对贸易扩张的二元化路径的影响。得出的结论是:在2003-2009年间,中国的出口扩张主要源自集约的贸易边际,而贸易成本的变动对中国出口总量增长的影响主要是通过促进扩展的贸易边际实现的。与可变贸易成本相比,出口固定成本的下降更能促进扩展的贸易边际。这一结论反映出当前中国积极实施自由贸易区发展战略的重要意义,同时也指明我国未来的贸易扩张路径应向贸易扩展边际方向转变。

In this paper, based on the theoretical model of heterogeneous firms improved by Kancs, we construct the influencing mechanism of different trade costs on trade expansion path. Combining with the trade and development data between China and 20 trading partners, we estimate the effect of fixed and variable trade costs on the duel path of trade expansion. It concludes that.. during the years from 2003 to 2009, the export expansion mainly comes from the intensive margin of trade in China, however, the impact of trade cost changes on overall export growth in China, it is realized by the trade margins of promoting trade. Comparing with the variable trade cost, the de- cline in fixed export cost can promote the extensive margin of trade. The conclusion reflects the sig- nificance of active implement of development strategy of free trade zones in China. Meanwhile, it also points out the direction that we should take trade extensive margin as the direction of future trade expansion path.